生态科学2018，Vol.37Issue(6)：45-51,7.DOI:10.14108/j.cnki.1008-8873.2018.06.006
广东省土地利用变化和林业温室气体清单变化规律分析与预测
Analysis and prediction of changes on land-use change and forestry greenhouse gas in Guangdong province
摘要
Abstract
As a sector in accord with four others (energy, industry, agriculture, and waste), land-use change and forestry (LUCF) reports a greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory per the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.It is vital to understand the provincial ability and potential of ecological carbon sequestration by studying the dynamic change of emission or sequestration of GHGs from LUCF in a region.We selected data from the sixth, seventh, and eighth National Forest Resources Inventories in 2002, 2007, and 2012, respectively, to determine net LUCF GHG emissions in 2005, 2010, and 2015.This was based on acquiring and analyzing activities and emission factors in those years, using methods outlined in the guidelines of the GHG inventory and incorporating with actual specialty of Guangdong Province.We established three scenarios to predict carbon bank and greenhouse gas emission reductions in future LUCF activities in that province.Results show that the net carbon sinks of LUCF in the province were increasing.The main reason was that an increase in carbon uptake of arbor forest was greater than that of emissions.The growth rate of living stand volume increased from 7.98％ (2005) to 9.61％ (2015), while the harvest rate dropped from 6.94％ (2005) to 5.54％ (2015).These benefits accrued from the implementation of policies and measures to address climate change in the fields of land use change and forestry in Guangdong Province over 2005–2015.Our scenario simulation results show that if future measures favor the increase of living carbon stock per unit area in the province, its forest will be important for carbon sequestration over a long period.关键词
土地利用变化和林业/温室气体/碳储量Key words
land use change and forestry/greenhouse gas/carbon stock分类
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李洁华,周平,张林林,程伟文..广东省土地利用变化和林业温室气体清单变化规律分析与预测[J].生态科学,2018,37(6):45-51,7.基金项目
广东省科学院实施创新驱动发展能力建设专项(2017GDASCZ-0701) （2017GDASCZ-0701）
