统计与决策2019，Vol.35Issue(8)：18-22,5.DOI:10.13546/j.cnki.tjyjc.2019.08.004
多变量时滞离散MGM(1,m,τ)模型及其应用
Multivariable Time-Delay Discrete MGM (1,m,τ) Model and Its Application
摘要
Abstract
Aiming at the fact that the traditional MGM (1, m) model fails to reflect the time-delay effect of multivariable systems, this paper constructs a multivariable discrete MGM (1,m,τ) model based on the grey system modeling theory, makes a study on the modeling mechanism and process of the model, and also gives the calculation method of time-delay parameters. Finally, by modeling and forecasting the per capita disposable income and consumption expenditure of urban residents in China, the paper discusses the hysteresis effect and verifies the validity of the model. The results show that MGM (1, m, participle) model has comparatively higher modeling accuracy, able to well simulate and predict small sample multivariate data with time-delay characteristics.关键词
灰色系统/MGM(1,m,τ)模型/时滞/预测Key words
grey system/MGM (1,m,τ) model/time-delay/prediction分类
自科综合引用本文复制引用
熊萍萍,张悦,邢卓,陈峰..多变量时滞离散MGM(1,m,τ)模型及其应用[J].统计与决策,2019,35(8):18-22,5.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71701105 （）
41505118) （）
国家社会科学基金重大项目(17ZDA092) （17ZDA092）
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(17YJC630182 （）
17YJC630123) （）
江苏省高校哲学社会科学研究重点项目(2018SJZDI111) （2018SJZDI111）
中国制造业发展研究院开放课题(SK20140090-13) （SK20140090-13）
大学生实践创新训练计划国家级项目(201710300041) （201710300041）
