云南农业大学学报（自然科学）2018，Vol.33Issue(5)：934-940,7.DOI:10.12101/j.issn.1004-390X(n).201705001
佳木斯市春季旱涝灾害统计特征及旱涝发生趋势预测
The Characters of Drought and Flood Disasters in Spring and the Model to Predict the Tendency in Jiamusi Region
摘要
Abstract
[Purpose]To investigate the evolution law of drought and flood disaster in Jiamusi region under the background of global climate change.[Method] The daily precipitation data in spring of Jiamusi since 1951 and the real-time data of 74 circulation index from the National Climate Center, Ri of which is on behalf of the precipitation anomaly percentage and Z index method are used to analyze the spring drought and flood type, frequency and spatial and temporal distribution characteristic and to establish the equation of spring precipitation forecast.[Result] The frequency of drought and flood catastrophe was between 72％ and 96％ during 1961—2015 in the city of Jiamusi. Before 1996, there was a higher frequency of drought, and the floods occurred probability of large after 1996; at the same time of annual precipitation reduction, in spring from March to May, the precipitation showed an upward trend, in the linear trend of 55 years, increased by about 9.6％ each 10 years; from the geographical distribution, the western region of Jiamusi administrative division was more prone to droughts and floods and more frequent conversion than in the east; according to the above information, Minitab 16 was used to carry out relevant census that the trend of drought and flood was mainly affected by spring and winter atmospheric circulation of last year. Therefore, according to the model which is used to predict trend of spring drought and occurrence of flood, the accuracy is 63.6％.[Conclusion] The results can provide a reference of disaster for short-term climate prediction in Jiamusi.关键词
春季/旱涝/特征/预测模型Key words
spring/drought and flood/characteristic/prediction model分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
王晓群,张宇,梁静,尹嫦娇,李君芳,周平..佳木斯市春季旱涝灾害统计特征及旱涝发生趋势预测[J].云南农业大学学报（自然科学）,2018,33(5):934-940,7.基金项目
2016年佳木斯市气象局自筹经费科学技术研究项目(HQZC2016006). （HQZC2016006）
