山西农业大学学报（社会科学版）2018，Vol.17Issue(1)：36-44,9.DOI:10.13842/j.cnki.issn1671-816x.2018.01.006
农业旱灾的社会风险评估研究——基于灰色模糊综合评价
Quantiative research on social risk of agricultural drought based on grey fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method
摘要
Abstract
Selecting 27 index related to economic, social and ecological factors, using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, The paper evaluates the possibility of the natural risk of agricultural droughtto social risk Results show that the agricultural drought is most likely to induce social risk.By selecting statistics on the social risk of agricultural drought in China from 2006 to 2015, the empirical analysis is made based on the grey correlation theory and the grey fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model.Results show that fuzzy synthetic average is 0.6025 points in 2006-2015 (highest 1 point), which means agricultural drought have great possibility from natural risk to social risk.Results also show agricultural drought risk from 2006 to 2015 is falling in fluctuation.关键词
农业旱灾/社会风险/模糊综合评判/灰色关联分析Key words
Agricultural drought/Social risk/Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation/Grey correlation analysis分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
谷洪波,麻湘琳..农业旱灾的社会风险评估研究——基于灰色模糊综合评价[J].山西农业大学学报（社会科学版）,2018,17(1):36-44,9.基金项目
湖南省哲学社会科学基金项目(14YBA171) （14YBA171）
湖南省自然科学基金项目(2015JJ2066) （2015JJ2066）
湖南省研究生科研创新项目(CX2016B580) （CX2016B580）
