山西农业大学学报（社会科学版）2018，Vol.17Issue(7)：61-70,10.DOI:10.13842/j.cnki.issn1671-816x.2018.07.021
我国粮食生产收益影响因素实证分析——基于稻谷、小麦和玉米数据的分阶段回归
Empirical analysis on influencing factors of grain production income in China
摘要
Abstract
Based on the data of rice,wheat and maize from 1990 to 2014,the paper analyzes the main influencing factors of revenue of growing grains and interrelation among these influencing factors in China. It finds that the increase of grain price and yield is the key factor to promote the increase of farmers' earnings,and the increase of producdon cost is the ob- stacle to the increase of farmers' earnings. After the increase of grain price and yield,it is also accompanied by the mcrease of producion cost. It aiso iinds that the current price of grain is not sensitive to change of production cost. The study also finds that the positive effect of grain price and yield on the change of revenue of growing grains has been strengthened since 2004,and the negative effect of production cost constraint on revenue of growing grains has been weakened.关键词
生产净利润/影响因素/协整检验/格兰杰因果检验/实证分析Key words
Production net profit/Influencing factors/Cointegration test/Granger causality test/Empirical analysis分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
周洲,石奇..我国粮食生产收益影响因素实证分析——基于稻谷、小麦和玉米数据的分阶段回归[J].山西农业大学学报（社会科学版）,2018,17(7):61-70,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(71673127) （71673127）
教育部人文社会科学基金项目(16YJC790046) （16YJC790046）
粮食公益性行业科研专项 (201513004) （201513004）
江苏省软科学研究计划项目(BR2017055) （BR2017055）
