北京工业大学学报（社会科学版）2019，Vol.19Issue(5)：51-60,10.DOI:10.12120／bjutskxb20190551
中国劳动力供给潜力的微观机制分析
On China′s Potential Labor Supply From a Micro Family Perspective
摘要
Abstract
China′s working-age population peaked in 2013.The aging population has a negative impact on supply-side production factors, and the labor supply potential will directly affect China′s economic growth in the future.According to the calculations, by 2046—2050, China′s potential labor supply will be reduced by 150 million compared with that in the＂13th Five-Year Plan＂period.The study focuses on many micro-institutional factors which affect labor supply potential and analyzes the micro-determination factors of China′s future labor supply through the decision equation of labor participation rate and unemployment rate.It finds out that age, education, age structure of a family and property income of a family play a decisive role in the working decision.In particular, adults are more likely to withdraw from the labor market when the proportion of elderly and children in households is high.Therefore, a micro mechanism is suggested for the Chinese government.By reducing the burden of old-age care and children′s education of a family, the individual labor supply decision will be changed, so as to improve the potential labor supply.关键词
劳动力供给/人口结构/劳动参与率/自然失业率Key words
labor supply/ demographics/ labor force participation rate/ natural rate of unemployment分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
陆旸..中国劳动力供给潜力的微观机制分析[J].北京工业大学学报（社会科学版）,2019,19(5):51-60,10.基金项目
国家社会科学基金一般项目(15BJL012) （15BJL012）
