情报杂志2019，Vol.38Issue(11)：119-125,7.DOI:10. 3969/j. issn. 1002-1965. 2019. 11. 018
考虑舆情衍生抢购的链式危机系统动力学模型与仿真∗
System Dynamics Model and Its Simulation of the Chain Crisis Considering Panic Buying Derived from Public Opinion
摘要
Abstract
[Purpose/Significance]For improving the early warning timeliness and governance ability of social risks,it is of significance to grasp the evolution law and prevention and control strategies of the chain crisis of " public opinion- panic buying" from system perspec-tive. [Method/Process]Assumptions are first given in combination with real cases,and a system dynamics model including three subsys-tems,i. e. ,the formation of public opinion,gathering of negative public opinion and panic buying of the masses,is put forward. Then,the crisis of "public opinion-panic buying of iodized salt" resulted from Japan’s nuclear leak in 2011 is taken as an example to verify the ef-fectiveness of the proposed model by refining and simulating indexes of evolutionary trends. Finally,the impact of key factors that could be controlled is tested to present strategic implications. [Results/Conclusion]The proposed model could well depict the evolution of "public opinion- panic buying" crisis; The sensitivity analysis of the impact of key factors on the indexes of this crisis shows that the role of opin-ion leaders is the highest,the influence rate of media is the second,and the response time of government is relatively low.关键词
舆情/抢购/链式危机/防控策略/系统动力学Key words
public opinion/ panic buying/ chain crisis/ prevention and control strategies/ system dynamics分类
自科综合引用本文复制引用
王治莹,王伟康..考虑舆情衍生抢购的链式危机系统动力学模型与仿真∗[J].情报杂志,2019,38(11):119-125,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目"多种诱导信息情境下突发公共事件舆情演进规律及其干预机制研究"(编号:71704001)和安徽省自然科学基金项目"重大灾害情境下‘舆情-抢购’危机演化机理与防控决策研究"(编号:1808085QG224)研究成果之一. （编号:71704001）
