首页|期刊导航|大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）|Extended-range prediction of a heat wave event over the Yangtze River Valley: role of intraseasonal signals
大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）2019，Vol.12Issue(6)：451-457,7.
Extended-range prediction of a heat wave event over the Yangtze River Valley: role of intraseasonal signals
Extended-range prediction of a heat wave event over the Yangtze River Valley: role of intraseasonal signals
摘要
Abstract
江淮流域热浪事件的触发与大气季节内信号的传播密切相关.基于ECMWF次季节预测系统的回报数据,本研究在延伸期(10-30天)尺度上评估了一次典型江淮热浪事件的预测情况.评估采用气候态与季节内模态剥离的方法,揭示出大气季节内信号在江淮热浪延伸期预测中的必要作用.结果表明,相较于热带季节内信号,中纬度季节内信号在延伸期的预测偏差,是导致热浪超前2周预测失败的主要原因.本研究的重要启示是,提高中纬度地区大气季节内信号在延伸期尺度上的预测效果是提升东亚极端热浪事件预测水平的重要途径.关键词
Extended-range prediction/heat wave/intraseasonal perturbation/Yangtze River ValleyKey words
Extended-range prediction/heat wave/intraseasonal perturbation/Yangtze River Valley引用本文复制引用
QI Xin,YANG Jing..Extended-range prediction of a heat wave event over the Yangtze River Valley: role of intraseasonal signals[J].大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）,2019,12(6):451-457,7.基金项目
This study was supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (Grant No.2018YFC1505903),the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.41775071),and the National Key R&D Program of China (Grant No.2016YFA0602401). （Grant No.2018YFC1505903）
