灌溉排水学报2019，Vol.38Issue(11)：117-128,12.DOI:10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.20190185
湖南省资水流域极端降水量时空变异特征及重现期极端降水量的推算
Spatial and Temporal Evolutionary Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation and It's Estimation for Certain Return Period in Hunan Zishui River Basin
摘要
Abstract
【Objective】The purpose of this paper is to analyze spatial and temporal evolutionary characteristics of the values of extreme precipitation for each national meteorological observatory of certain return periods in Zishui river basin, 【Method】 based on the observed daily rainfall data from 1960 to 2016, the values of extreme precipitation for each national meteorological observatory of certain return periods were calculated using EOF, spatial auto correlation, Mann-Kendall test, Complex Morlet wave transform and statistical methods. 【Result】The results showed that: ①generally speaking, spatial distribution of the extreme precipitation in Zishui river basin is inhomogeneous which is greater in the west than the east and greater in the north than the south. There are three kinds of typical modes for extreme precipitation, namely the whole region, north-south, northwest-southeast. Annual maximum daily precipitation was characterized of spatial aggregation since 1980s, the tend of polarization is very obvious after 2000.②The value of extreme precipitation has increasing tendency, this is especially true for middle and downstream. There exist a 10 years Quasi-periodic oscillation for extreme precipitation in upstream.③When the return period is greater than 50 years, the spatial distribution of extreme precipitation is still inhomogeneous which is larger in the west than the east and larger in the north than the south. The extreme precipitation of certain return period increases with the increasing of return period. The more extreme precipitation, the faster extreme precipitation increases. 【Conclusion】 The occurrence of El Nino in recently years were thought to be connected with the evolution of extreme precipitation. The relations between El Nino and extreme precipitation of Zishui basin are remain to be discussed.关键词
资水流域/极端降水量/时空变异/重现期Key words
Zishui river basin/extreme precipitaion/spatial and temporal evolution/return period分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
李兵1,章新平2,杨令1,夏妍2..湖南省资水流域极端降水量时空变异特征及重现期极端降水量的推算[J].灌溉排水学报,2019,38(11):117-128,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(41571021) （41571021）
湖南省气象局"短平快"科研课题(XQKJ18B047) （XQKJ18B047）
