天然气与石油2019，Vol.37Issue(6)：117-124,8.DOI:10.3969/j. issn. 1006-5539.2019.06.021
城市天然气供应风险评价与预警研究
Research on Risk Assessment and Early Warning of Urban Natural Gas Supply
摘要
Abstract
Promoting and utilizing the low-carbon natural gas resources is an important measure of urban environmental governance. However, the rapid growth of urban natural gas consumption has brought about great risks. At present, the research on risk assessment and early warning of natural gas supply mainly focuses on the national level, and cannot be used in the risk management of stakeholders in urban gas supply. Therefore, the evaluation indicators and evaluation system of natural gas supply risk are constructed. The Markov Model is used to establish an early-warning mechanism of urban natural gas supply risk, and the four-level warning system is classified. The corresponding risk control measures are also developed for each indicator in different warning level. The results show that great risks exist in the urban natural gas supply, including insufficient gas sources, lower transportation capacity and demand exuberance; the risks of natural gas supply in cities have the characteristics of timeliness and randomness, so the Markov Model can be used to predict and warn the risk factors; according to four warning levels, and combined with visual tools such as spider chart, the dynamic observations of the development trend of risk factors and prevention of risk events can be realized. Conclusions are that: the risk assessment and risk early warning system can reflect the characteristics of natural gas supply risk in cities and can provide effective forecasting and warning mechanism for all stakeholders of urban natural gas supply.关键词
天然气供应/城市燃气/风险评价/风险预警/马尔科夫模型Key words
Natural gas supply/ Urban natural gas/ Risk assessment/ Risk early warning/Markov model引用本文复制引用
郑玉华,沈德群,魏昭,吕正林,宜海滨..城市天然气供应风险评价与预警研究[J].天然气与石油,2019,37(6):117-124,8.基金项目
国家"十三五"油气科技重大专项专题"煤层气开发方案优化与风险评估"(2016 ZX 05042-003-04) （2016 ZX 05042-003-04）
