东南大学学报（英文版）2020，Vol.36Issue(1)：98-106,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1003-7985.2020.01.013
基于改进MD模型的川藏铁路诱增客流预测方法
Forecasting method of induced passenger flow for Sichuan-Tibet railway based on improved MD model
摘要
Abstract
Aiming at the limitation of forecasting induced passenger flow with the modal demand( MD) model, which assumes that the travel time value and travel utility obey the fixed probability distribution, a forecasting method of induced passenger flow is proposed by using an improved MD model based on the prospect theory. Combined with the actual traffic flow survey data of the Sichuan Tibet passenger transport channel, the improved MD model is used to forecast the total passenger flow and induced passenger flow along the Sichuan Tibet railway. Finally, the improved forecasting model is compared with the traditional MD model and the Logit model, and the effects of the parameters in the foreground theory on the forecasting results are analyzed. The results show that the Logit model forecasting result is 8. 5% higher than the improved MD model forecasting result, the traditional MD model forecasting result is 3. 7% higher than the improved MD model forecasting result, but the difference between the forecasting results of each model is within 10% . The parameter value in the prospect theory has a significant effect on the passenger flow forecasting results, especially in the two types of travelers, the variable and the conservative, where the forecasted difference reaches 23% .关键词
诱增客流/客流预测/前景理论/MD模型Key words
induced passenger flow/passenger flow forecasting/prospect theory/modal demand ( MD) model分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
张锦,徐君翔,郭静妮..基于改进MD模型的川藏铁路诱增客流预测方法[J].东南大学学报（英文版）,2020,36(1):98-106,9.基金项目
Project supported by China National Railway Group Co. , Ltd ( No. KF2019-010-B) . （ No. KF2019-010-B）
