大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）2021，Vol.14Issue(1)：40-45,6.
模拟多年冻土活动层厚度对气候变化的响应
Simulated response of the active layer thickness of permafrost to climate change
摘要
Abstract
The active layer thickness (ALT) in permafrost regions,which affects water and energy exchange,is a key variable for assessing hydrological processes,cold-region engineering,and climate change.In this study,the authors analyzed the variation trends and relative changes of simulated ALTs using the Chinese Academy of Sciences Land Surface Model (CAS-LSM) and the Chinese Academy of Sciences Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model,gridpoint version 3 (CAS-FGOALS-g3).Firstly,the simulated ALTs produced by CAS-LSM were shown to be reasonable by comparing them with Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring observations.Then,the authors simulated the ALTs from 1979 to 2014,and their relative changes across the entire Northern Hemisphere from 2015 to 2100.It is shown that the ALTs have an increasing trend.From 1979 to 2014,the average ALTs and their variation trends over all permafrost regions were 1.08 m and 0.33 cm yr-1,respectively.The relative changes of the ALTs ranged from 1％ to 58％,and the average relative change was 10.9％.The variation trends of the ALTs were basically consistent with the variation trends of the 2-m air temperature.By 2100,the relative changes of ALTs are predicted to be 10.3％,14.6％,30.1％,and 51％,respectively,under the four considered hypothetical climate scenarios (SSP-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5).This study indicates that climate change has a substantial impact on ALTs,and our results can help in understanding the responses of the ALTs of permafrost due to climate change.关键词
活动层厚度/CAS-LSM/变化趋势/相对变化/气候变化Key words
Active layer thickness/CAS-LSM/Variation trends/Relative changes/Climate change引用本文复制引用
Ruichao Li,Si Chen,Jinbo Xie,Zhenghui Xie,Junqiang Gao,Binghao Jia,Peihua Qin,Longhuan Wang,Yan Wang,Bin Liu..模拟多年冻土活动层厚度对气候变化的响应[J].大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）,2021,14(1):40-45,6.基金项目
This research was supported by the National Key R&D Program of China[grant number 2018YFC1506602],the Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences,CAS[grant number QYZDY-SSW-DQC012],and the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 41830967]. （）
