大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）2021，Vol.14Issue(1)：46-51,6.
中国地区NCEP再分析资料与台站观测的地表温度差异及其影响
Discrepancies in surface temperature between NCEP reanalysis data and station observations over China and their implications
摘要
Abstract
Previous studies show that temporal irreversibility (TI),as an important indicator of the nonlinearity of time series,is almost uniformly overestimated in the daily air temperature anomaly series over China in NCEP reanalysis data,as compared with station observations.Apart from this highly overestimated TI in the NCEP reanalysis,some other important atmospheric metrics,such as predictability and extreme events,might also be overestimated since there are close relations between nonlinearity and predictability/extreme events.In this study,these issues are fully addressed,i.e.,intrinsic predictability,prediction skill,and the number of extreme events.The results show that intrinsic predictability,prediction skill,and the occurrence number of extreme events are also almost uniformly overestimated in the NCEP reanalysis daily minimum and maximum air temperature anomaly series over China.Furthermore,these overestimations of intrinsic predictability,prediction skill,and the number of extreme events are only weakly correlated with the overestimated TI,which indicates that the quality of the NCEP reanalysis should be carefully considered when conclusions on both predictability and extreme events are derived.关键词
不可逆行性/再分析/评估/可预报性/极值事件Key words
Irreversibility/Reanalysis/Evaluation/Predictability/Extreme events引用本文复制引用
Ruichen Li,Yu Huang,Fenghua Xie,Zuntao Fu..中国地区NCEP再分析资料与台站观测的地表温度差异及其影响[J].大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）,2021,14(1):46-51,6.基金项目
This research was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers 41475048,41675049,and 41705041]. （）
