大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）2021，Vol.14Issue(1)：57-62,6.
协调大集合模拟下全球海表面温度对北极对流层早冬增暖的影响
Impact of global sea surface temperature on the recent early winter Arctic tropospheric warming in coordinated large ensemble simulations
摘要
Abstract
Coordinated numerical ensemble experiments with six different state-of-the-art atmosphere models were used to evaluate and quantify the impact of global SST (from reanalysis data) on the early winter Arctic warming during 1982-2014.Two sets of experiments were designed: in the first set (EXP1),OISSTv2 daily sea-ice concentration and SST variations were used as the lower boundary forcing,while in the second set (EXP2) the SST data were replaced by the daily SST climatology.In the results,the multi-model ensemble mean of EXP1 showed a nearsurface (～850 hPa) warming trend of 0.4 ℃/10 yr,which was 80％ of the warming trend in the reanalysis.The simulated warming trend was robust across the six models,with a magnitude of 0.36-0.50 ℃/10 yr.The global SST could explain most of the simulated warming trend in EXP1 in the mid and low troposphere over the Arctic,and accounted for 58％ of the simulated near-surface warming.The results also suggest that the uppertropospheric warming (～200 hPa) over the Arctic in the reanalysis is likely not a forced signal;rather,it is caused by natural climate variability.The source regions that can potentially impact the early winter Arctic warming are explored and the limitations of the study are discussed.关键词
北极增暖/海表面温度/多模式协调试验/E-P通量/行星波Key words
Arctic warming/Sea surface temperature/Multi-model coordinated experiment/Eliassen-Palm flux/Planetary wave引用本文复制引用
Lutao Wang,Yongqi Gao,Dong Guo,Tao Wang,Ying Zhang,Wei Hua..协调大集合模拟下全球海表面温度对北极对流层早冬增暖的影响[J].大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）,2021,14(1):57-62,6.基金项目
This work was supported by the National Key R&D Program of China[grant number 2017YFE0111800]and the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers 41790472 and 41661144005].The second author was also partly supported by the EU H2020 Blue-Action project[grant number 727852]. （）
