大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）2021，Vol.14Issue(2)：42-47,6.
不同代表性浓度路径情景下2045-2050年中国气溶胶分布变化的分析
Analysis of aerosol distribution variations over China for the period 2045-2050 under different Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios
摘要
Abstract
The regional air quality modeling system RAMS-CMAQ was applied to simulate the aerosol concentration for the period 2045-2050 over China based on the downscaled meteorological field of three RCP scenarios from CESM(NCAR's Community Earth System Model)in CMIP5.The downscaling simulation of the meteorological field of the three RCP scenarios showed that,compared with that under RCP2.6,the difference in near-surface tempera-ture between North and South China is weakened and the wind speed increases over North and South China and decreases over central China under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.Under RCP2.6,from 2045 to 2050,the modeled average PM2.5 concentration is highest,with a value of 40-50 μg m-3,over the North China Plain,part of the Yangtze River Delta,and the Sichuan Basin.Meanwhile,it is 30-40 μg m-3 over central China and part of the Pearl River Delta.Compared with RCP2.6,PM2.5 increases by 4-12 μg m-3 under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5,of which the SO42-and NH4+concentration increases under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5;the NO3-concentration decreases un-der RCP4.5 and increases under RCP8.5;and the black carbon concentration changes very slightly,and organic carbon concentration decreases,under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5,with some increase over part of Southwest and South-east China under RCP8.5.The difference between RCP4.5 and RCP2.6 and the difference between RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 have similar annual variation for different aerosol species,indicating that the impact of climate change on different species tends to be consistent.关键词
PM2.5/代表性浓度路径/RAMS-CMAQ/气象影响Key words
PM2.5/RCP/RAMS-CMAQ/meteorological influence引用本文复制引用
Yi Gao,Meigen Zhang,Chenglai Wu..不同代表性浓度路径情景下2045-2050年中国气溶胶分布变化的分析[J].大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）,2021,14(2):42-47,6.基金项目
This study was supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program(A)of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[grant number XDA19040204],the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 41830966],and the Major Scientific and Technological Innovation Projects of Shandong Province[grant number 2018YFJH0901]. （A）
