东南大学学报（英文版）2021，Vol.37Issue(1)：91-93,95,96,97,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1003-7985.2021.01.012
考虑碰撞前行为的交叉口自行车碰撞事故分析:随机参数次序Probit方法
Analysis of bicyclist-vehicle crash at intersection area considering behavior prior to crash:A random parameter ordinal probit approach
摘要
Abstract
In order to analyze the risky factors that affect vehicle-cyclist crash injury severity at the intersection area,especially the factors relating to the road users'behaviors,an empirical study was conducted by collecting accident records from 2011 to 2015 from the General Estimates System.After preliminary screening,the variables were classified into 5 main categories including cyclists'characteristic and behavior,drivers'characteristic and behavior,vehicle characteristic,intersection condition,and time.The random parameter ordinal probit(RPOP)was used to study the significant influencing factors and corresponding heterogeneity.The results show that failing to obey traffic signals,failing to yield to right-of-way,dash and drinking before cycling can increase the injury severity for cyclists,and the corresponding fatal injury likelihoods increase by 53.2％,40.0％,86.3％,and 211.5％,respectively.Moreover,drivers'inattention,speeding,going straight and left turning increase the risk of crashing for cyclists.The corresponding fatal injury likelihoods increase by 134.5％,186.5％,69.3％,and 22.7％,respectively.Other indicators such as age,gender,vehicle type,traffic signal and intersection type can also affect injury severity.关键词
交通安全/伤害严重程度/自行车事故/交叉口/RPOPKey words
traffic safety/injury severity/cyclist crash/intersection/random parameter ordinal probit(RPOP)分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
袁方,杨轸..考虑碰撞前行为的交叉口自行车碰撞事故分析:随机参数次序Probit方法[J].东南大学学报（英文版）,2021,37(1):91-93,95,96,97,6.基金项目
The National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2017YFC0803902). （No.2017YFC0803902）
