首页|期刊导航|大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）|Comparison of different land-surface perturbation methods in short-range ensemble forecasts
大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）2021，Vol.14Issue(3)：60-65,6.
Comparison of different land-surface perturbation methods in short-range ensemble forecasts
Comparison of different land-surface perturbation methods in short-range ensemble forecasts
摘要
Abstract
为了比较不同陆面扰动方法对短时集合预报的影响,本研究设计了陆面模式扰动实验(LSMPE),初始土壤湿度扰动实验(ISMPE),陆面-大气耦合系数扰动实验(LCCPE)以及大气扰动对照实验(GEFSPE).结果表明,在三组陆面扰动实验中,LSMPE能代表最大的不确定性且误差最小;ISMPE的离散度要比LCCPE稍大,但是耦合系数的减弱能有效降低区域平均降水量.然而,所有陆面扰动实验产生的离散度均小于GEFSPE,这表明未来有必要将陆而扰动与大气扰动相结合,以使得模式能代表更多的不确定性.关键词
短时集合预报/陆面参数/华南地区Key words
Short-range ensemble forecast/Land-surface parameter/South china region引用本文复制引用
Zhibo Gao ,Jiangshan Zhu ,Yan Guo ,Xiaodong Yan ,Xiujuan Wang,Huoqing Li ,Shuwen Li..Comparison of different land-surface perturbation methods in short-range ensemble forecasts[J].大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）,2021,14(3):60-65,6.基金项目
This work was supported by the National Key R&D Program on the Monitoring,Early Warning and Prevention of Major Natural Disasters[grant number 2017YFC1502103],the Key Special Project for the Introducing Talents Team of the Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou)[grant number GML2019ZD0601],and the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers 41875136,41305099,and 41801019]. （Guangzhou）
