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On the sensitive areas for targeted observations in ENSO forecasting

Jingjing Zhang Shujuan Hu Wansuo Duan

大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）2021，Vol.14Issue(5)：19-23,5.

On the sensitive areas for targeted observations in ENSO forecasting

Jingjing Zhang ¹Shujuan Hu ¹Wansuo Duan²

作者信息

1. College of Atmospheric Sciences,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou,China
2. State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG),Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing,China
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摘要

Abstract

本研究分别从初始误差增长和粒子滤波同化的角度识别了 ENSO预测的目标观测敏感区.结果表明:与粒子滤波同化方法确定的敏感区相比,基于初始误差增长确定的敏感区位置稍微偏东,且在东南太平洋也有分布,但整体而言,这两种方法确定的敏感区存在大范围重合区域,是互为印证的.在实际目标观测中,如果考虑使用确定敏感区方法的不确定性,那么选择上述两种方法确定的敏感区的重合区域作为ENSO预测的目标观测敏感区将更为合理.

关键词

目标观测/ENSO/粒子滤波/初始误差

Key words

Targeted observation/ENSO/Particle filter/Initial error

引用本文复制引用

Jingjing Zhang,Shujuan Hu,Wansuo Duan..On the sensitive areas for targeted observations in ENSO forecasting[J].大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）,2021,14(5):19-23,5.

基金项目

This study was supported by the National Natural Science Founda-tion of China[grant numbers 41930971,41775069,and 41975076]. （）

大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）

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ISSN：1674-2834

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