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Intraseasonal oscillation of the southwest monsoon over Sri Lanka and evaluation of its subseasonal forecast skill

L.A.D.Buddika Bandurathna Lu Wang Xuan Zhou Yifeng Cheng Lin Chen

大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）2021，Vol.14Issue(6)：7-13,7.

Intraseasonal oscillation of the southwest monsoon over Sri Lanka and evaluation of its subseasonal forecast skill

L.A.D.Buddika Bandurathna ¹Lu Wang ²Xuan Zhou ¹Yifeng Cheng ²Lin Chen¹

作者信息

1. Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD),Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing,China
2. Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology,Qingdao,China
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摘要

Abstract

斯里兰卡的雨季发生于5-9月间,主要受西南季风的控制.本文发现该地区的西南季风降水存在很强的次季节变率,主导周期为10-35天.降水的季节内变化与西传的异常气旋有关.进一步,利用S2S比较计划中欧洲中心的数值预报模式(ECMWF)提供的回报试验数据,评估了当今动力模式对斯里兰卡西南季风次季节变化的预报技巧.结果显示,对季风指数的预测技巧超过30天,而对降水指数的预测技巧大约两周,且模式的预报技巧具有明显的年际差异.分析表明,能否正确模拟出大尺度环流对热带对流的响应是影响斯里兰卡降水预测的重要因子.

关键词

季节内振荡/斯里兰卡/西南季风/次季节预测

Key words

Intraseasonal oscillation/Sri Lanka/Southwest monsoon/Subseasonal forecast

引用本文复制引用

L.A.D.Buddika Bandurathna,Lu Wang,Xuan Zhou,Yifeng Cheng,Lin Chen..Intraseasonal oscillation of the southwest monsoon over Sri Lanka and evaluation of its subseasonal forecast skill[J].大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）,2021,14(6):7-13,7.

基金项目

This work was jointly supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China[grant number 2019YFC1510004],the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)[grant number 41975108],and the NSFC-Shandong Joint Fund for Marine Science Re-search Centers[grant number U1606405]. （NSFC）

大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）

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ISSN：1674-2834

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