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Intraseasonal oscillation of the rainfall variability over Rwanda and evaluation of its subseasonal forecasting skill

Xuan Zhou Lin Chen Janet Umuhoza Yifeng Cheng Lu Wang Ran Wang

大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）2021，Vol.14Issue(6)：60-65,6.

Intraseasonal oscillation of the rainfall variability over Rwanda and evaluation of its subseasonal forecasting skill

Xuan Zhou ¹Lin Chen ²Janet Umuhoza ¹Yifeng Cheng ²Lu Wang ¹Ran Wang²

作者信息

1. Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD),Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing,China
2. College of Atmospheric Science,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing China
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摘要

Abstract

非洲中东部地区的经济主要依靠自给农业支撑,该地区农业经济对降水的变化尤为敏感.本文以卢旺达为例,观测分析指出卢旺达的次季节降雨主要集中在10-25天;根据次季节尺度降水变率的单点相关方法,发现卢旺达的次季节降水变率和周围区域变化一致;进一步合成结果显示该地区次季节降水变率与异常西风有关,这可追溯到赤道地区西传的赤道Rossby波.最后,本文评估了当前动力模式ECMWF对卢旺达地区(即非洲中东部)次季节降水变率的预报能力,发现EC模式在对该区域降水和相关风场指数的预报技巧都在18天左右,且预报技巧表现出一定的年际差异,这可能与热带太平洋的背景海温信号有关.该工作增进了当前对非洲中东部地区的次季节降水变率和预测水平的认知,并且对该地区国家粮食安全和防灾减灾具有启示性意义.

关键词

季节内振荡/卢旺达/次季节降水变率/S2S预报技巧

Key words

Intraseasonal oscillation/Rwanda/Intraseasonal rainfall variability/Subseasonal forecast

引用本文复制引用

Xuan Zhou,Lin Chen,Janet Umuhoza,Yifeng Cheng,Lu Wang,Ran Wang..Intraseasonal oscillation of the rainfall variability over Rwanda and evaluation of its subseasonal forecasting skill[J].大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）,2021,14(6):60-65,6.

基金项目

This work was jointly supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China[grant number 2019YFC1510004]and the LASG Open Project. （）

大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）

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ISSN：1674-2834

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