首页|期刊导航|大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）|Monthly prediction of tropical cyclone activity over the South China Sea using the FGOALS-f2 ensemble prediction system
大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）2022，Vol.15Issue(2)：26-32,7.
Monthly prediction of tropical cyclone activity over the South China Sea using the FGOALS-f2 ensemble prediction system
Monthly prediction of tropical cyclone activity over the South China Sea using the FGOALS-f2 ensemble prediction system
摘要
Abstract
本研究基于新一代FGOALS-f2动力集合预测系统35年(1981-2015年)的热带气旋历史回报试验对南海台风季(7-11月)热带气旋活动超前10天的月预测技巧进行评估,并对2020年南海台风季热带气旋活动进行了实时月预测尝试.结果表明:FGOALS-f2能较好地预测南海热带气旋路径密度演变特征,预测的热带气旋生成个数与实际观测结果的相关系数在0.2-0.6之间.2020年实时预测方面,FGOALS-f2较为准确地给出了南海台风季热带气旋生成位置与移动路径的概率预测,且对南海热带气旋生成个数和强度异常的确定性预测结果与观测接近.关键词
热带气旋/南海/月预测/预测系统/FGOALS-f2Key words
Tropical cyclone/South China Sea/Monthly prediction/Prediction system/FGOALS-f2引用本文复制引用
Shentong Li,Jinxiao Li,Jing Yang,Qing Bao,Yimin Liu,Zili Shen..Monthly prediction of tropical cyclone activity over the South China Sea using the FGOALS-f2 ensemble prediction system[J].大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）,2022,15(2):26-32,7.基金项目
The research presented in this paper was jointly funded by the Na-tional Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 42005117],the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[grant number XDB40030205],and the Key Special Project for the Introducing Talents Team of the Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Guangdong)[grant number GML2019ZD0601]. （Guangdong）
