气象学报2022，Vol.80Issue(5)：685-700,16.DOI:10.11676/qxxb2022.055
中国降水的年代际变化及全球变暖、太平洋年代际振荡、大西洋多年代际振荡对其的相对贡献
Interdecadal variation of land precipitation in China and relative contributions of global warming，IPO and AMO
摘要
Abstract
Although land precipitation across China is dominated by inter-annual variability, we identify the areas of significant variability of decadal (10—20 a), multidecadal (20—50 a) and secular trend (＞50 a) by applying singular spectrum analysis (SSA). In addition, relative contributions of different sea surface temperature (SST) modes to the trend and (inter) decadal variability of precipitation over China during June—August (summer)/December—February (winter) of 1934—2018 are investigated by singular value decomposition (SVD) and multiple linear regression methods. Based on SVD analysis of precipitation in China and SST in the middle and low latitudes, it is found that global warming (GW) is the primary SST mode affecting precipitation in China in both winter and summer. The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) plays a second role. A multivariate linear regression model is then applied to quantitatively evaluate the variance contributions and relative contributions of GW, IPO and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) to precipitation in different regions of China. The results show that GW, IPO and AMO can explain about 30%of the trend and (inter) decadal precipitation in Northwest China and North China in summer, and the relative contribution of GW is the largest, followed by that of IPO. In winter, the above three factors can explain 42% of the trend and (inter) decadal precipitation in Northeast China and about 30% in Northwest China and North China. In Northeast China and Northwest China, the relative contribution of GW is dominant, and the contribution of AMO is second to that of GW. In North China, GW contribution is also dominant, followed by that of IPO.关键词
全球变暖/太平洋年代际振荡（IPO）/大西洋多年代际振荡（AMO）/相对贡献Key words
Global warming (GW)/Interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO)/Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO)/Relative contribution分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
杜佳玉,陶丽,许承宇..中国降水的年代际变化及全球变暖、太平洋年代际振荡、大西洋多年代际振荡对其的相对贡献[J].气象学报,2022,80(5):685-700,16.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目（2016YFA0600402）。 （）
