气象学报（英文版）2022，Vol.36Issue(5)：1-37,37.
东亚季风次季节至季节变率及预测研究进展与展望
Progress and Prospects of Research on Subseasonal to Seasonal Variability and Prediction of the East Asian Monsoon
摘要
Abstract
Subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) variability represents the atmospheric disturbance on the 10–90-day timescale, which is an important bridge linking weather and climate. In 2015, China Meteorological Administration (CMA) listed the S2S prediction project that was initiated by WMO programs three years ago as one of its key tasks. After five years of research, significant progress has been made on the mechanisms of the East Asian monsoon (EAM) S2S variability, related impact of climate change, as well as the predictability on the S2S timescale of numerical models. The S2S variability of the EAM is closely linked to extreme persistent climate events in China and is an important target for seasonal climate prediction. However, under the influence of global warming and the interactions among climate systems, the S2S variability of the EAM is so complex that its prediction remains a great challenge. This paper reviews the past achievement and summarizes the recent progress in research of the EAM S2S variability and prediction, including characteristics of the main S2S modes of the EAM, their impact on the extreme events in China, effects of external and internal forcing on the S2S variability, as well as uncertainties of climate models in predicting the S2S variability, with a focus on the progress achieved by the S2S research team of the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences. The present bottlenecks, future directions, and critical research recommendations are also analyzed and presented.关键词
东亚季风/次季节至季节/变化机理/模式可预报性Key words
East Asian monsoon (EAM)/subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescale/change mechanism/predictability of climate models引用本文复制引用
祝从文,刘伯奇,李论,马双梅,蒋宁,鄢钰函..东亚季风次季节至季节变率及预测研究进展与展望[J].气象学报（英文版）,2022,36(5):1-37,37.基金项目
Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41830969),the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research(STEP)Program(2019QZKK0105),National Natural Science Foundation of China(42005131),Basic Scientific Research and Operation Fund of the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(CAMS)(2021Z004),and Science and Technology Development Fund of CAMS(2020KJ009 and 2020KJ012). （41830969）
