国际护理科学（英文）2022，Vol.9Issue(4)：438-444,7.
腹部手术患者压力性损伤风险预测模型的开发及验证
Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting the risk of pressure injury in adult patients undergoing abdominal surgery
冯雪 1王萌 1张娅 1刘倩 1郭明阳 1梁鸿寅1
作者信息
摘要
Abstract
Objectives:This study aimed to develop a nomogram for predicting the risk of pressure injury(PI)in adult patients undergoing abdominal surgery and validate its effectiveness among these patients.Methods:This study retrospectively included 11,247 adult patients,who underwent abdominal surgery and postoperative supervision in ICU,in a tertiary care hospital in western China between January 2017 and December 2020.All datasets were extracted from the patient's medical records and randomly divided into the training cohort(8,997)and the validation cohort(2,250)by 8∶2.The univariable logistic regression was used to select potentially relevant features.Then,multivariable logistic regression was also conducted and utilized to establish the nomogram.The nomogram was compared with the Braden scale for predicting PI in the validation cohort through the area under the curve(AUC)of the receiver operator characteristic(ROC)curve,Hosmer-Lemeshow(H-L)test,and decision curve analysis(DCA).Results:873(7.8％)patients suffered Pis.Logistic regression analysis showed that time of operation,weight,type of operation,albumin,and Braden scale score were independent risk factors for PI.A nomogram integrating five selected characteristics was constructed.The AUC of the ROC curve for the nomogram was 0.831,with a specificity of 85.2％and sensitivity of 63.7％.The AUC of the ROC curve for the Braden scale was 0.567,with a specificity of only 33.0％.The P-values of the H-L test were 0.45(nomogram)and 0.22(Braden scale),both indicating good calibration.The DCA also displayed that the nomogram had better predictive validity.Conclusion:Compared with the Braden scale,the nomogram showed a better predictive performance.This nomogram is informative and has the potential to better guide caregivers for risk stratification and prevention of PI,although it requires further validation.关键词
成年人/列线图/病人/压力性溃疡/外科手术Key words
Adult/Nomogram/Patients/Pressure ulcer/Surgical procedures引用本文复制引用
冯雪,王萌,张娅,刘倩,郭明阳,梁鸿寅..腹部手术患者压力性损伤风险预测模型的开发及验证[J].国际护理科学（英文）,2022,9(4):438-444,7.
