全球能源互联网（英文）2023，Vol.6Issue(4)：450-466,17.DOI:10.1016/j.gloei.2023.08.006
长期能源系统优化模型的不确定性因素及分析方法综述
A review of uncertain factors and analytic methods in long-term energy system optimization models
摘要
Abstract
A larger number of uncertain factors in energy systems influence their evolution.Owing to the complexity of energy system modeling,incorporating uncertainty analysis to energy system modeling is essential for future energy system planning and resource allocation.This study focusses on long-term energy system optimization model.The important uncertain parameters in the model are analyzed and divided into policy,economic,and technical factors.This study specifically addresses the challenges related to carbon emission reduction and energy transition.It involves collecting and organizing relevant research on uncertainty analysis of long-term energy systems.Various energy system uncertainty modeling methods and their applications from the literature are summarized in this review.Finally,important uncertainty factors and uncertainty modeling methods for long-term energy system modeling are discussed,and future research directions are proposed.关键词
长期能源系统优化模型/不确定性因素/不确定性建模Key words
Long-term energy system optimization models/Uncertain factors/Uncertainty modeling引用本文复制引用
凤斯雨,任宏涛,周文戟..长期能源系统优化模型的不确定性因素及分析方法综述[J].全球能源互联网（英文）,2023,6(4):450-466,17.基金项目
This work was supported by Global Energy Interconnection Group Co.,Ltd.:Assessment of China's carbon neutrality implementation path and simulation research on policy tool combination(SGGEIG00JYJS2200059). （SGGEIG00JYJS2200059）
