首页|期刊导航|大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）|Projected relationship between ENSO and following-summer rainfall over the middle reaches of the Yangtze River valley based on CMIP6 simulations
大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）2023，Vol.16Issue(6)：40-47,8.DOI:10.1016/j.aosl.2023.100374
Projected relationship between ENSO and following-summer rainfall over the middle reaches of the Yangtze River valley based on CMIP6 simulations
Projected relationship between ENSO and following-summer rainfall over the middle reaches of the Yangtze River valley based on CMIP6 simulations
摘要
Abstract
厄尔尼诺—南方涛动(ENSO)对长江中游夏季降水(YRSR)的年际变化影响较大.基于CMIP6模式数据,本文预估了未来ENSO与长江中游夏季降水关系的变化.与1979～2014年相似,SSP5-8.5高排放情景下ENSO-YRSR的关系仍表现为前冬发生厄尔尼诺(拉尼娜)后,长江中游夏季降水为正异常(负异常).同时,仍然受三个物理过程影响:前冬ENSO影响次年夏季印度洋海温(ENSO-TIO SST),印度洋海温异常进而影响菲律宾对流(TIO SST-PSC),菲律宾对流对长江中游夏季降水产生影响(PSC-YRSR).例如,(1)5个CMIP6好模式的中位数和20个EC-Earth3好子集的中位数均预估ENSO-YRSR在2015～2100年大部分时段保持显著正相关关系,因为上述三个物理过程的相关关系在未来也显著.(2)30个CMIP6模式的中位数和56个EC-Earth3子集的中位数预估ENSO-YRSR关系略有增强;主要是因为上述三个物理过程在未来变强.(3)5个CMIP6好模式的中位数预估ENSO-YRSR关系仍强于30个CMIP6模式的中位数结果,主要是因为前者预估的TIO SST-PSC和PSC-YRSR关系更强.未来将关注ENSO-YRSR预估的不确定性来源.关键词
ENSO/夏季降水/中国/降水预估Key words
ENSO/Summer rainfall/China/Projection引用本文复制引用
Yue Sui,Guoping Xie..Projected relationship between ENSO and following-summer rainfall over the middle reaches of the Yangtze River valley based on CMIP6 simulations[J].大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）,2023,16(6):40-47,8.基金项目
This research was supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Hubei Province of China[grant number 2020CFB331],the Na-tional Key Research and Development Program of China[grant number 2018YFA0605602],and the Strategic Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[grant number XDA19070402]. （）
