气象2023，Vol.49Issue(12)：1532-1541,10.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2023.101101
基于集合预报的异常温度预报产品在中国的应用分析
Application Research on Abnormal Temperature Forecast Products in China Based on Ensemble Forecast
摘要
Abstract
Based on the fifth generation global reanalysis data(ERA5)of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF),the model climate is constructed.The ensemble mean abnormal temperature forecast and abnormal temperature probability forecast products for China are constructed ac-cording to the maximum and minimum temperatures by using ECMWF ensemble forecast and standardized anomaly forecast method.The forecast performance was tested and compared with the extreme forecast in-dex(EFI).Furthermore,based on"abnormal temperature impact matrix",forecast index of impact de-gree of abnormal temperature event was constructed.The forecast application of related products was dis-cussed through the cases of abnormal temperature events.The results show that the ensemble mean abnor-mal temperature forecast product based on ERA5 and ECWMF ensemble forecast has a good forecasting effect for both summer and winter abnormal temperature events in China,and the forecast performance is better than or close to EFI through comparative verification.The product can be used as a supporting product for forecasting abnormal temperature events.Abnormal temperature probability forecast products can reflect the information of abnormal temperature events predicted in the ensemble members of the set,have advantages in finding early abnormal temperature event signals in medium-range forecast,and can re-flect the uncertainty information of abnormal weather forecast.The forecast index of impact degree of ab-normal temperature event combines the prediction information of the probability of abnormal weather and the prediction information of the anomaly of abnormal weather.It can give the objective and quantitative prediction results of the abnormal temperature time in one product.The prediction of the abnormal low temperature event caused by a cold surge weather process proves that this index has a relatively good pre-diction effect.It has certain indicative significance and application prospect for the prediction and early warning of abnormal temperature events.关键词
集合预报/异常天气事件/极端预报指数/异常温度预报Key words
ensemble forecast/abnormal weather event/extreme forecast index(EFI)/abnormal tempera-ture forecast分类
大气科学引用本文复制引用
陶亦为,张恒德,代刊,董全,周军,刘珺..基于集合预报的异常温度预报产品在中国的应用分析[J].气象,2023,49(12):1532-1541,10.基金项目
国家重点研发计划(2016YFE010240004、2018YFE0196000)、公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYH201406021)共同资助 （2016YFE010240004、2018YFE0196000）
