气象2023，Vol.49Issue(12)：1542-1552,11.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2023.051501
强风事件识别及预报订正方法研究
Study of Approach in Identification and Modification of Gale Event Forecast
摘要
Abstract
Based on the wind speed observation data of Marine Booster Station in Rudong Wind Farm,this paper proposes a method of identifying gale event.Three identification schemes of gale event forecast are developed and compared through the determination of the crucial parameters.Then,based on the decision tree method and a single linear regression method,the correction methods for gale events are studied.The results show that the gale event forecast of equal cumulative frequency scheme is superior to other schemes,having the hit rate of 76.1％and the hit rate of matching duration of 87.6％.The duration of gale event forecast of eliminating deviation and equal cumulative frequency schemes are more in agreement with the observation data.Besides,the equal cumulative frequency scheme can cover the duration of every observation gale event,so it is good for proposing the beginning and end time of gale warning.The above-mentioned two correction methods can improve the forecast performance to a certain extent.However,the improvement done by the decision tree method is more obvious,for it can significantly reduce the MAE,RE,RMSE.关键词
强风事件/数值预报/订正/决策树/一元线性回归Key words
gale event/numerical weather prediction(NWP)/correction/decision tree/a single linear re-gression分类
大气科学引用本文复制引用
韩乐琼,何晓凤,张雪松,肖擎曜,陈笑..强风事件识别及预报订正方法研究[J].气象,2023,49(12):1542-1552,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金面上项目(41875123)、国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1507603)、中国气象科学研究院基本科研业务费重点项目(2020Z006)、第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目(2019QZKK0105)和云南省科技厅科技计划项目(202305AM070004)共同资助 （41875123）
