电测与仪表2023，Vol.60Issue(12)：139-146,8.DOI:10.19753/j.issn1001-1390.2023.12.020
考虑不确定因素影响的微电网供电能力评价方法
Evaluation method of power supply capacity of micro-grid considering the influence of uncertain factors
摘要
Abstract
In order to study the influence of wind power,photovoltaic and load uncertainty on short-term power supply ca-pacity of micro-grid,this paper combines the prediction error probability distribution of wind power,photovoltaic and load with Monte-Carlo sampling method to establish a short-term power supply capacity evaluation method of micro-grid consid-ering wind power,photovoltaic and load uncertainty.A deterministic prediction of wind power,photovoltaic and load is carried out by means of autoregressive non-parametric method,and then,the prediction error of wind power,photovoltaic and load is analyzed probabilistically.The Monte-Carlo sampling method is used to sample the prediction error models of wind power,photovoltaic and load,and combined with the deterministic prediction results of wind power,photovoltaic and load,the possible scenarios of the micro-grid are obtained;Several evaluation indices which can be used to quantify the power supply capacity are defined,and the evaluation index of the power supply capacity of the micro-grid is calculated according to the optimal solution of each scenario of the micro-grid.A micro-grid is selected as an example to verify the proposed method,and the results show that the method proposed in this paper can accurately reflect the power supply ca-pacity of the micro-grid under different weather types.关键词
不确定性/微电网/供电能力/蒙特卡罗模拟法/非参数方法/评价指标Key words
uncertainty/micro-grid/power supply/Monte-Carlo simulation/non-parametric method/evaluation index分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
王宁,宋子洋,贾清泉..考虑不确定因素影响的微电网供电能力评价方法[J].电测与仪表,2023,60(12):139-146,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51877186) （51877186）
