摘要
Abstract
In view of the large initial investment of park micro-grid and the uncertainty of distributed power generation,in order to fully explore and quantitatively evaluate the economic benefits of micro-grid operation,a micro-grid economic operation evaluation method based on probabilistic income analysis algorithm is proposed.In this algorithm,the uncertainty of micro-grid investment income is quantified from the perspective of income probability distribution,the resource uncertainty and prediction uncertainty are fully considered,the uncertainty models of load and photovoltaic output are established,and a large number of random scenarios are generated.By using Monte Carlo method to analyze the micro-grid monthly income,the corresponding income probability distribution curve is generated to realize the quantification of micro-grid uncertain income.The calculation results show that the method can compare the benefits of different micro-grid configuration parameters,and provide a scientific basis for the investment decision of park micro-grid.关键词
园区微电网/概率收益分析算法/随机场景生成/蒙特卡洛算法/收益概率分布曲线Key words
park micro-grid/probabilistic income analysis algorithm/random scene generation/Monte Carlo algorithm/probability distribution curve of income分类
信息技术与安全科学
