郑州大学学报（医学版）2023，Vol.58Issue(6)：774-780,7.DOI:10.13705/j.issn.1671-6825.2022.11.015
头颈部腺样囊性癌预后预测列线图模型的构建
Construction of nomogram prognostic prediction model for adenoid cystic carcinoma of the head and neck
摘要
Abstract
Aim:To construct a nomogram for predicting the survival outcomes of patients with adenoid cystic carcino-ma of the head and neck(ACCHN).Methods:A total of 2 108 ACCHN patients(modeling cohort)was screened in the SE-ER database from 2000 to 2017 in this study.Independent prognostic factors influencing outcomes were identified through Cox regression analysis.Nomograms were constructed to predict 3-and 5-year overall survival(OS)and cancer-specific survival(CSS)rates.Totally 149 ACCHN patients confirmed from 2000 to 2017 were selected as the external validation co-hort.And then consistency index(C-index),ROC curve and calibration curve were used to evaluate the performances of no-mogram.Results:Age,gender,single primary tumor,surgery,chemotherapy,primary site,and TNM stages were identified as influencing factors for OS.Age,single primary tumor,surgery,chemotherapy,primary site,AJCC stage,and TNM stages were influencing factors for CSS.The characteristics above were integrated into the nomograms for predicting 3-and 5-year OS and CSS.The internal validation revealed C-index(95%CI)of 0.770(0.754-0.786)and 0.602(0.584-0.620)for OS and CSS,respectively,whereas the external validation exhibited C-index(95%CI)of 0.796(0.795-0.797)and 0.781(0.780-0.782).In the internal validation,the AUC(95%CI)for predicting 3-and 5-year OS were 0.826(0.803-0.849)and 0.814(0.792-0.835),and for CSS were 0.845(0.820-0.871)and 0.834(0.811-0.857).In the exter-nal validation,the AUC(95%CI)for predicting 3-and 5-year OS were 0.855(0.799-0.932)and 0.838(0.768-0.909),and for CSS were 0.806(0.701-0.911)and 0.806(0.726-0.886).Conclusion:The nomograms constructed in this study can accurately predict the OS and CSS of ACCHN patients and is beneficial for individualized prognostic evalu-ation and clinical decision-making.关键词
头颈部腺样囊性癌/列线图/预测模型/SEER数据库Key words
adenoid cystic carcinoma of the head and neck/nomogram/prediction model/SEER database分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
郭歌,董栋,黄书满,尹通男,乔新杰,胡好杰,宋一彤,赵玉林..头颈部腺样囊性癌预后预测列线图模型的构建[J].郑州大学学报（医学版）,2023,58(6):774-780,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(82071023) （82071023）
