郑州大学学报（医学版）2023，Vol.58Issue(6)：785-790,6.DOI:10.13705/j.issn.1671-6825.2022.11.046
膀胱鳞状细胞癌预后预测模型的构建和验证
Construction of prognostic prediction model for bladder squamous cell car-cinoma
摘要
Abstract
Aim:To analyze the prognostic factors of bladder squamous cell carcinoma(BSCC)and develop a prognostic prediction model.Methods:Clinical characteristics and follow-up data of 286 BSCC cases confirmed by pathology between 2000 to 2019 obtained from the SEER database were collected(traning set).Additionally,an external validation set compri-sing 20 patients was obtained from the Urology Department of Henan Provincial Hospital of TCM from 2012 to 2021.Cox re-gression model was used to identify prognostic predictors,and a nomogram was created based on the regression results in training set.The performance of the model was assessed using C-index,ROC curve,calibration curve,and decision curve a-nalysis(DCA).Results:Cox regression analysis revealed that age≥70 years,N1-N3 stage,M1 stage and non-radical cys-tectomy were associated with poor prognosis,with HR(95%CI)of 2.208(1.629-2.992),2.683(1.684-4.274),3.155(1.880-5.293),3.288(0.805-13.432),3.073(1.719-5.494),and 2.218(1.678-2.931),respectively.The mod-el's performance was evaluated both in the training set and external validation set,with a C-index(95%CI)of 0.739(0.703-0.776)and 0.759(0.651-0.868),respectively.The areas under the ROC curve(95%CI)for predicting sur-vival rates at 1,3,and 5 a in the training set were 0.779(0.725-0.834),0.750(0.695-0.806),and 0.741(0.682-0.799),respectively;in the external validation set were 0.748(0.570-0.926),0.679(0.534-0.823),and 0.650(0.523-0.778).The calibration curve closely resembled the ideal curve,and the DCA decision curve deviated significant-ly from the baseline,indicating good agreement between predicted and actual outcomes.Conclusion:The developed progno-sis prediction model demonstrates promising predictive value for BSCC.关键词
膀胱鳞状细胞癌/SEER数据库/预后预测/列线图Key words
bladder squamous cell carcinoma/SEER database/prognostic prediction/nomogram分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
白洋洋,陈瑞廷,孙继建,郭依琳..膀胱鳞状细胞癌预后预测模型的构建和验证[J].郑州大学学报（医学版）,2023,58(6):785-790,6.基金项目
河南省重点研发与推广专项(科技攻关)(222102310651) （科技攻关）
河南省卫生健康委国家中医临床研究基地科研专项(2022JDZX142) （2022JDZX142）
