海洋预报2023，Vol.40Issue(6)：51-66,16.DOI:10.11737/j.issn.1003-0239.2023.06.006
EC预报数据在中国近海的适用性研究
Applicability of EC forecast data in China's offshore waters
摘要
Abstract
The 10 m wind field data provided by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(EC)has a high significance for reference and is frequently used in the coastal areas,but there is no systematic assess to the data quality in different coastal areas.This paper uses the 10 m wind observations collected by 22 buoys in China's offshore waters to evaluate the EC 10 m wind forecasts,including three typhoons and two typical cold air processes recorded by buoys.The results show that:The correlation between the EC wind forecasts and the measured wind speed is generally good.EC forecasts larger 10 m wind speed when the wind level is lower than 4,and EC forecasts smaller 10 m wind speed when the wind level is higher than 4,while when the wind level is 3～5,EC forecasts relative accurate 10 m wind speed.Mean error of 10 m wind direction forecasts is between 0°～20°.Error of wind direction forecasts is larger when the wind level is lower,and visa versa.EC 10 m wind forecasts have a good response to the wind direction change caused by typhoons,and the wind speed forecasts perform well when the wind speed is low,however,there is a large error in the maximum wind speed forecasts.EC 10 m wind forecasts can correctly predict the wind direction change caused by the two cold air processes.The smaller the wind speed,the smaller the error in the EC forecasts.Along with the increase of wind level,the forecast error increases significantly.EC wind speed forecasts are small when actual wind speed is large,so the error is also large.关键词
中国近海/EC预报10m风场数据/海上大风/误差分析Key words
China's offshore waters/EC 10m wind forecasts/strong wind/error analysis分类
海洋科学引用本文复制引用
林晓娟,李响,刘晓燕,祖子清,王延强..EC预报数据在中国近海的适用性研究[J].海洋预报,2023,40(6):51-66,16.基金项目
国家自然科学基金委面上项目(42375062) （42375062）
国家重点研发计划重点专项课题(2022YFC2806603). （2022YFC2806603）
