情报杂志2023，Vol.42Issue(12)：44-49,57,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-1965.2023.12.007
情报失误的悖论
The Paradox of Intelligence Failure
摘要
Abstract
[Research purpose]The paradox of intelligence failure refers to the fact that,on one hand,intelligence analysts conduct a comprehensive comparison between themselves and their adversary in political,economic,and military power,which is the premise of the assessment,and assert that the decisions made by their adversary are awfully irrational and even suicidal,therefore will not be taken into actions,which is the process of the assessment;on the other hand,although the decisions of their adversary are contradictory to its national interests and goals,their adversary still reluctantly implement the dicisions,which ends in failure at last.Therefore,the assessment is self-contradictory.The paradox of intelligence failure is a brand new topic,which involves internal logical structure and the theoretical frame-work of military intelligence,especially the theoretical framework for analysis,and also the fields of international politics,cognitive psy-chology and logic.In short,how to define intelligence failure is a question that deserves in-depth consideration and research.[Research method]By means of content analysis and literature research,the paradox of intelligence failure is explored through case studies and de-tailed illustrations of Japanese Attack on Pearl Harbor,Cuba Missile Crisis,and the Fourth Middle East War.[Research conclusion]The paradox of intelligence failure is a proof that intelligence failure is unavoidable.Therefore,the traditional intelligence analysis methodology should be improved and innovated to minimize the intelligence failure.关键词
情报失误/悖论/情报分析/战略意图/战略欺骗/战略突袭Key words
intelligence failure/paradox/intelligence analysis/strategic intent/strategic deception/strategic surprise分类
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金宁,丰建泉,马建光..情报失误的悖论[J].情报杂志,2023,42(12):44-49,57,7.基金项目
国家社会科学基金项目"日本政党政治右倾化及其对防卫政策影响研究"(编号:22CGJ032) （编号:22CGJ032）
国防科技大学研究生院重点研究建设项目"国家安全战略研究"(编号:2022-01-27Z)研究成果. （编号:2022-01-27Z）
