情报杂志2023，Vol.42Issue(12)：119-126,152,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-1965.2023.12.018
基于"突变—演化"模型的颠覆性技术识别方法及应用
Disruptive Technology Identification Method and Application Based on the"Mutation-Evolution"Model
摘要
Abstract
[Research purpose]Aiming at the forefront of world technology,effective identifying and foreseeing disruptive technologies has become the key for our country to shape new advantages in future competition and achieve high-level technological self-reliance.[Research method]Starting from the disruptive technological mutation characteristics and evolutionary paths,we construct a"mutation-evolution"model.Then,we calculate the technological mutation value and technological evolution value to identify potential disruptive technologies.Finally,comparing with existing research and considering expert opinions and industry reports,we validate the effectiveness of our model and select disruptive technologies.[Research conclusion]Using integrated circuit material patent data as a sample,we iden-tify"photoresist","non-silicon-based substrate materials"and"packaging materials"as key directions for disruptive technologies in in-tegrated circuit materials.This is consistent with the current development status of the integrated circuit material industry,confirming the scientific property and effectiveness of the"mutation-evolution"model for identifying disruptive technologies.关键词
颠覆性技术/"突变—演化"模型/技术识别/集成电路材料/专利分析/指标体系/突变理论Key words
disruptive technology/mutation-evolution model/technology identification/integrated circuit materials/patent analysis/in-dicator system/mutation theory分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
熊焰,张凌恺,陈旭,江瑶..基于"突变—演化"模型的颠覆性技术识别方法及应用[J].情报杂志,2023,42(12):119-126,152,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目"国际学习对制造企业国际化速度的作用机制与时空效应研究"(编号:71974130) （编号:71974130）
上海市2023年度"科技创新行动计划"软科学研究项目"面向上海未来产业培育的颠覆性技术识别及突破路径研究"(编号:23692123100) （编号:23692123100）
上海市青年科技英才扬帆计划项目"上海融合性数字产业'卡脖子'技术甄选机制与攻关路径研究"(编号:21YF1415900)研究成果. （编号:21YF1415900）
