气象2023，Vol.49Issue(11)：1299-1314,16.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2023.081601
2019年影响中国台风的降水预报误差及其来源研究
Research on Rainfall Forecast Errors and Their Sources of Typhoons Influencing China in 2019
摘要
Abstract
By using the object-oriented method of contiguous rain area(CRA),this paper investigates sources of the rainfall forecast error in deterministic forecasts by the ECMWF,and their changes with dif-ferent rainfall levels and forecast periods when typhoons influenced China in 2019.Then,the correlations between typhoon track errors and displacement errors of rainfall events are analyzed and the performance improvements of rainfall forecasts calculated with track correction or CRA shifting are compared.Finally,forecast errors of rainfall probability distribution,radial and asymmetric rainfall distribution are verified and analyzed.The results are as follows.In general,the main forecast errors come from displacement er-ror and shape error.Except for enormous amount of rainfall,track error is significantly correlated to the displacement error of CRA rainfall events.The improvement of rainfall forecasts made by track error cor-rection is less than that made by CRA shifting correction.The shape of probability density distribution for rainfall forecasts resembles the observed one,but the forecasted rainfall intensity in typhoon core area is stronger than the observed one.Before and after typhoons'making landfall or approaching the coast,the forecasted rainfall is much closer to typhoon center than the observed one,and it lags behind the observa-tion.The asymmetric structure of forecasted rainfall is significantly weaker than the observed one.关键词
CRA/台风降水预报误差/路径误差/位置误差Key words
CRA(contiguous rain area)/forecast error of typhoon rainfall/track error/displacement error分类
大气科学引用本文复制引用
何斌,喻自凤,王海平..2019年影响中国台风的降水预报误差及其来源研究[J].气象,2023,49(11):1299-1314,16.基金项目
国家重点研发计划(2021YFC3000804)、国家自然科学基金项目(U2142206、41875080)、上海市自然科学基金项目(22ZR1482000)共同资助 （2021YFC3000804）
