气象2023，Vol.49Issue(11)：1384-1395,12.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2023.051602
湖南6月区域持续性暴雨概率预报模型及应用
Probabilistic Forecasting Model of Regional Persistent Rainstorm in June in Hunan and Its Application
摘要
Abstract
Based on the EAR5 reanalysis data in June from 1979 to 2016,the moist thermodynamic advec-tion parameter,thermal helicity,divergence flux,moisture divergence flux and the thermodynamic wave-activity density are selected as five comprehensive factors.The probability prediction model of regional persistent rainstorm in Hunan is constructed by the means of nuclear density estimation and based on the optimal factor and weight combination which is established with the best TS score as the test standard.The results show that the average TS of independent samples from 2017 to 2019 reaches 29.9％,which is a positive skill relative to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)fine grid forecast(with an average TS score of 22.4％).During the two regional persistent rainstorm operational experiments in the 2021 and 2022 flood seasons,the rainstorm forecast with a 24 h leadtime by the Hunan regional perisistent rainstorm probability prediction model is superior to the forecasts of ECMWF and CMA-GFS large-scale model as well as CMA-SH and CMA-GD regional mesoscale model.Therefore,the Hunan regional persistent rainstorm prbability prediction model has a strong ability to forecast the regional persistent rainstorm in Hunan.关键词
核密度估计/概率预报/区域持续性暴雨/湖南Key words
nuclear density estimation/probabilistic forecasting/regional persistent rainstorm/Hunan分类
大气科学引用本文复制引用
李易芝,罗伯良,彭莉莉,张超,彭晶晶..湖南6月区域持续性暴雨概率预报模型及应用[J].气象,2023,49(11):1384-1395,12.基金项目
湖南省自然科学基金项目(2019JJ50318)资助 （2019JJ50318）
