气象2023，Vol.49Issue(11)：1396-1404,9.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2023.030703
S2S气候模式产品在黄河流域径流预测中的应用
Application of S2S Climate Model Products in Runoff Prediction in the Yellow River Basin
摘要
Abstract
Sub-seasonal to seasonal(S2S)climate and runoff prediction is of great importance for active dis-aster reduction.The prediction models of runoff anomaly and extreme drought for the future 40 days are developed based on CMA-CPS v3 climate model by National Climate Center,China Meteorological Admin-istration,and a hydrological model HBV.The performance of the models are evaluated with the indices of MSSS,ACC,AUC and BSS for hindcast,and verified for the runoff anomaly prediction over the Yellow River Basin in 2021.The results suggest that runoff mean prediction for the future 40 days is skillful,and the skill is higher in dry season than wet season.Moreover,the extreme drought prediction is skillful in later autumn(November)and the winter months(December,January and February).The direction of monthly runoff anomaly from May to October in 2021 are predicted correctly except in June and Septem-ber,but the anomaly degrees are different from observation.Finally,the analysis of skill variation with lead time and seasons,and the skill difference between runoff and precipitation reveals that the skill of pre-cipitation prediction by S2S climate model influences runoff skill,especially during wet season.However,there are also other factors than precipitation affecting the skill of runoff prediction.关键词
次季节到季节/径流预测/干旱预测/黄河Key words
sub-seasonal to seasonal/runoff prediction/drought prediction/Yellow River分类
地球科学引用本文复制引用
刘绿柳,王国复,肖潺..S2S气候模式产品在黄河流域径流预测中的应用[J].气象,2023,49(11):1396-1404,9.基金项目
国家重点研发计划(2016YFE010240004、2018YFE0196000)、公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYH201406021)共同资助 （2016YFE010240004、2018YFE0196000）
