数字图书馆论坛2023，Vol.19Issue(11)：62-73,12.DOI:10.3772/j.issn.1673-2286.2023.11.008
基于专利数据应用LDA和N-BEATS组合方法的技术主题预测研究
Technology Themes Prediction Based on Combination of LDA and N-BEATS Methods Applied to Patent Data
摘要
Abstract
Predicting the future hot topics of technology themes can enable enterprises to distinguish the current situation,identify future technological di-rections,and plan their strategic layout in advance at the technical level.This study proposes a combination method of LDA and N-BEATS,which uses the LDA model to extract technical topics from patent literature data.The N-BEATS network model is introduced to analyze the time series of the number of patents for each technical topic,leveraging its advantage in analyzing interpretable time series.The periodic module of technological research and development activities is added to the prediction model,and the chip technology is used as an example to predict the technical themes and future trends of the industry using this com-bination method.The prediction accuracy of the LDA and N-BEATS combination method in the comparative experiment is higher than that of the three bench-mark methods:LDA-LSTM,IPC-N-BEATS,and IPC-LSTM.The case results indicate that the future research and development hotspots in the chip industry are electronic grade resins,etching machines,chip packaging,chip bonding,and polishing fluids.关键词
LDA/N-BEATS网络模型/深度学习/芯片产业/技术预测Key words
LDA/N-BEATS Network Model/Deep Learning/Chip Industry/Technological Forecast分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
吴雷,杜文研,林超然..基于专利数据应用LDA和N-BEATS组合方法的技术主题预测研究[J].数字图书馆论坛,2023,19(11):62-73,12.基金项目
本研究得到国家社会科学基金一般项目"'双链融合'视角下IC产业关键核心技术甄别及突破研究"(编号:23BGL076)资助. （编号:23BGL076）
