农业展望2023，Vol.19Issue(10)：53-59,7.
国内金融市场对农产品价格横向传导机制研究
Horizontal Transmission Mechanism of Agricultural Product Prices in Domestic Financial Market
摘要
Abstract
In recent years,with the increasing correlation between agricultural prices and financial markets,the uncertainty of agricultural price fluctuations has been greatly aggravated.In this paper,the agricultural product wholesale price index and four financial factors related to the fluctuation of agricultural prices(including domestic aggregate demand,money market,stock market and real estate market)were selected for horizontal transmission mechanism analysis.Through the cointegration test and distribution lag model to analyze the monthly data from 2017 to February 2021,it was found that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the agricultural product wholesale price index and the domestic aggregate demand,money market,stock market and real estate market;fluctuations in domestic aggregate demand,money market and real estate market can be transmitted to domestic agricultural prices,but there is no time lag.Finally,some policy suggestions were put forward to deal with the price fluctuations of agricultural products from the aspects of domestic money supply and futures market.关键词
农产品价格/金融化/传导机制/分布滞后模型Key words
agricultural commodity prices/financialization/transmission mechanisms/distributional lag models引用本文复制引用
魏同洋,王兵兵,徐磊..国内金融市场对农产品价格横向传导机制研究[J].农业展望,2023,19(10):53-59,7.基金项目
中国农业科学院科技创新工程(CAAS-ASTIP-2023-AII) （CAAS-ASTIP-2023-AII）
