干旱区研究2023，Vol.40Issue(12)：1918-1930,13.DOI:10.13866/j.azr.2023.12.05
基于LMDI-SD耦合模型的关中地区水资源承载力动态预测与调控
Dynamic prediction and regulation of the water resource carrying capacity in the Guanzhong region based on the LMDI-SD coupling model
摘要
Abstract
To realize the dynamic prediction and quantitative regulation of water resource carrying capacity,an LMDI-SD coupling model based on the LMDI decomposition method,system dynamics(SD),and orthogonal test method was established.The coupling model uses the LMDI decomposition method to identify the driving factors of water consumption change,establishes the SD model to predict the water resource carrying capacity,takes the key driving factors of water consumption change of each department as the regulation index,comprehensively regulates the economic and social water use,and selects the optimal regulation scheme combined with the orthogonal test method.Applied to the dynamic prediction and regulation of water resource carrying capacity in the Guanzhong region between 2020 and 2035,the results show that the following:(1)the intensity effect is the key driving factor for the decrease in agricultural water consumption and the increase in domestic and ecological water consumption in the Guanzhong region between 2010 and 2019,whereas the scale effect is the key driving factor for the increase in industrial water consumption;(2)under the current development mode,the water resource bearing pressure of the whole Guanzhong region and cities will increase yearly from 2020 to 2035,and will be in an overloaded state by 2035 as the increase in total water consumption is far greater than the available water supply;(3)the Han to Wei River Diversion Project effectively alleviated the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources in the Guanzhong area from the supply side.However,compared with the rapidly growing demand,water resources in some cities remain limited;therefore,they should be regulated from the demand side;(4)by restricting the expansion speed of industrial development,improving the level of agricultural water use,and slowing down the growth trend of domestic and ecological water use,the water resources in the Guanzhong region can be bearable from 2020 to 2035.The LMDI-SD coupling model constructed in this study has good practical application value for regional water resource planning and management within the framework of sustainable development.关键词
水资源承载力/动态预测/定量调控/系统动力学/关中地区Key words
water resources carrying capacity/dynamic prediction/quantitative regulation/system dynamics/Guanzhong region引用本文复制引用
贾琼,宋孝玉,宋淑红,刘晓迪,覃琳,刘辉..基于LMDI-SD耦合模型的关中地区水资源承载力动态预测与调控[J].干旱区研究,2023,40(12):1918-1930,13.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0400301) （2016YFC0400301）
