河北水利电力学院学报2023，Vol.33Issue(4)：8-13,6.DOI:10.16046/j.cnki.issn2096-5680.2023.04.002
大坝失事概率模糊事故树分析方法
Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis Method for Dam Failure Probability
摘要
Abstract
In order to quantitatively analyze the probability of dam failure and provide decision-making basis for dam risk analysis and evaluation,this paper integrates fuzzy set theory into the fault tree analysis method,studies the fuzzy fault tree analysis method of dam failure probability,specifically analyzes the traditional fault tree analysis method,fuzzy set theory,triangular fuzzy number method,and basic event probability determination method,clarifies the analysis process of the fuzzy fault tree analysis method of dam failure probability,and analyzes the dam failure mode.Finally,taking the calculation of the failure probability of an earth-rock dam as an example,the causes of the dam failure were analyzed in depth,and the top event,intermediate event,and basic event were identified.A fuzzy fault tree analysis model for the dam was established,and the probability of each basic event was triangulated and normalized.The com-prehensive determination of the dam failure probability can provide a reference for the next step of risk as-sessment.关键词
大坝/失事概率/模糊集/事故树Key words
dam/failure probability/fuzzy set/fault tree分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
黄梦婧..大坝失事概率模糊事故树分析方法[J].河北水利电力学院学报,2023,33(4):8-13,6.基金项目
安徽省自然科学基金联合基金重点项目(2208085US06) （2208085US06）
安徽省高校自然科学研究重点项目(KJ2021A1458) （KJ2021A1458）
