华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）2023，Vol.44Issue(6)：36-48,13.DOI:10.19760/j.ncwu.zk.2023066
基于SPEI的长江流域干旱特征及其驱动因素分析
Analysis of Drought Characteristics and Driving Factors in the Yangtze River Basin Based on SPEI
摘要
Abstract
Based on the monthly meteorological data of 114 meteorological stations in the Yangtze River Basin from 1980 to 2019,the multi-scale standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)was calculated.The drought characteris-tics and driving factors in the Yangtze River Basin were analyzed by using the analysis of the proportion of drought cover-age,Sen+Mann-Kendall trend test,drought gravity shift model and geographical detector.The results are as follows.Firstly,the Yangtze River Basin showed an overall trend of becoming wetter,with SPEI values increasing at an overall rate of 0.01/(10 years).The SPEI values for all time scales were between(-1,1)with a clear positive and negative fluctuation trend.The drought rating is dominated by no drought and mild drought,with a wet trend in the spring and summer and a dry trend in the fall and winter.Secondly,the Yangtze River Basin experienced the largest area of drought in the winter of the 2010s,mainly in the central region.Thirdly,the direction of migration of the center of gravity of drought is gradually moving towards the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin.Fourthly,meteorological factors and topography are the main influences on drought changes in the Yangtze River Basin,with average annual precipitation and elevation fac-tors dominating.In the interaction detection,the influence of two-factor interaction on the drought variation in the Yangtze River Basin is greater than that of one-factor interaction,indicating that the drought variation in the Yangtze River Basin is the result of the combined effect of multiple factors.关键词
干旱特征/标准化降水蒸散指数/时空变化/地理探测器/长江流域Key words
drought characteristics/SPEI/temporal and spatial evolution/geographical detector/Yangtze River basin分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
商建东,王芷晓,魏洁茹,魏冲..基于SPEI的长江流域干旱特征及其驱动因素分析[J].华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）,2023,44(6):36-48,13.基金项目
河南省自然科学基金(202300410276) （202300410276）
河南省重大科技专项(201400211000、221100210600、221100210600). （201400211000、221100210600、221100210600）
