华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）2023，Vol.44Issue(6)：49-57,9.DOI:10.19760/j.ncwu.zk.2023067
基于Budyko互补关系法的嘉陵江径流变化归因研究
Attribution of the Runoff Changes in Jialing River Based on Budyko Complementary Relationship Method
摘要
Abstract
Identifying the drivers of runoff change is important for watershed water management and planning.Taking the Jialing River basin as the research object,we first clarifies the changing trend of runoff depth and meteorological factors in the basin from 1961 to 2020,and determines the time of occurrence of annual runoff mutation in Beibei Station by Pettitt mutation test,secondly,we calculates the elastic coefficient of each influencing factor based on the Budyko elastic coeffi-cient method,and finally calculates the contribution rate of each influencing factor to runoff change by using the comple-mentary relationship model.The following conclusions are obtained:① The annual runoff and precipitation in the Jialing River basin shows a decreasing trend,the potential evapotranspiration shows an increasing trend,and the sudden change in runoff occurred in 1985;② Compared the change period(from 1986 to 2020)with the base period(from 1961 to 1985),the runoff in the Jialing River basin is the most sensitive to precipitation(its sensitivity coefficient is 1.60),followed by the underlying surface parameters(its sensitivity coefficient is-0.72),and potential evapotranspiration(its sensitivity coefficient is-0.62);③ The contribution rate of the underlying surface condition to the runoff reduction in the Jialing River basin is the highest,and is up to 63.93%,followed by precipitation,and its contribution rate is 36.12%,the last is potential evapotranspiration,and its contribution rate is-0.05%.The development and utilization of water resources and the improvement of vegetation coverage in the Jialing River basin have become the main reasons for the runoff decrease in the basin.The research results will provide a scientific reference for the formulation of measures for developing and utilizing water resources in the basin.关键词
嘉陵江流域/Budyko假设/互补关系模型/归因分析/人类活动/径流变化Key words
Jialing River basin/Budyko hypothesis/complementary relationship model/attribution analysis/anthropogenic activity/runoff variation分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
胡淼,王润瑄,姬广兴..基于Budyko互补关系法的嘉陵江径流变化归因研究[J].华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）,2023,44(6):49-57,9.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFD1700900) （2021YFD1700900）
河南农业大学拔尖人才项目(30501031). （30501031）
