口腔颌面外科杂志2023，Vol.33Issue(6)：385-390,6.DOI:10.12439/kqhm.1005-4979.2023.06.005
口腔鳞状细胞癌患者根治性切除术后感染的风险预测模型构建与验证
Construction and validation of risk prediction model for postoperative infection in OSCC patients after radical resection
张瑾 1程政 1闫小静 2雷冰1
作者信息
- 1. 西安交通大学口腔医院,陕西省颅颌面精准医学研究重点实验室,西安 710004||西安交通大学口腔医院,陕西省牙颌疾病临床研究中心,西安 710004||西安交通大学口腔医院综合科,西安 710004
- 2. 山东省立第三医院,济南 250031
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
Objective:To analyze the risk factors of postoperative infection in patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma(OSCC)after radical resection,to establish an infection risk prediction model,and to verify the model externally to explore its predictive value.Methods:A total of 568 patients with OSCC after radical resection in the Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery of Xi'an Jiaotong University Stomatological Hospital from January 2017 to December 2022 were retrospectively collected.They were randomly divided into the modeling group(386 cases)and the validation group(182 cases),and their clinical data were collected.The multiple factor Logistic regression model was used to analyze the influencing factors of infection in patients,and R software was used to build a line graph prediction model for internal and external verification.Results:Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that age≥60 years,American Society of Anesthesiologists(ASA)grade≥Ⅱ,diabetes mellitus,tracheotomy,and operation time>260 min were independent risk factors of infection after radical resection in OSCC patients(P<0.05).The results of the Hosmer-Lemeshow test were χ 2=8.529,P=0.384,which suggested that the model had good discrimination and accuracy.The area under the curve(AUC)of receiver operating characteristic(ROC)were 0.805 and 0.794 in the modeling group and the validation group respectively.The calibration curve showed that the model has good discrimination and accuracy.Conclusion:The nomogram constructed by age,ASA grade,diabetes mellitus,tracheotomy and time length of surgery can accurately predict the risk of infection in patients with OSCC after radical resection,with high clinical application value.关键词
口腔鳞状细胞癌/根治性切除术/感染/危险因素/预测模型Key words
oral squamous cell carcinoma/radical resection/infected/risk factors/prediction model分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
张瑾,程政,闫小静,雷冰..口腔鳞状细胞癌患者根治性切除术后感染的风险预测模型构建与验证[J].口腔颌面外科杂志,2023,33(6):385-390,6.
