林业科学2023，Vol.59Issue(12)：25-36,12.DOI:10.11707/j.1001-7488.LYKX20210840
气候变化背景下我国长柄扁桃潜在适生区预测
Prediction of Potential Suitable Areas of Amygdalus pedunculata in China under Climate Change
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]Amygdalus pedunculata is one of the important oil tree species in China,with extremely high economic value and ecological benefits.This study aims to predict the suitable areas of A.pedunculata in China and its response to climate change,which would provide scientific basis for the protection and artificial planting of A.pedunculata resources.[Method]A total of 148 A.pedunculata distribution data and 34 environmental factors were filtered out by R language and ArcGis.The ENMeval software package was used to optimize the maximum entropy niche model(MaxEnt)parameters,and complete the filtering of environmental factors required for modeling which was based on Pearson correlation analysis and VIF variance expansion factor analysis.Jackknife was used to evaluate the dominant environmental factors in the suitable area of A.pedunculata.The optimized model was used to analyze the geographical distribution of the currently suitable distribution areas of A.pedunculata,to speculate the potential distribution in the Last Inter Glacial,the Last Glacial Maximum and the Mid Holocene,and analyze their potential distribution.According to the sixth climate model of IPCC,the changing trend of A.pedunculata in the future distribution area under different climatic scenarios could be predicted.[Result]The results of model optimization showed that when the model feature combinations were linear,quadratic,fragmented,product and threshold features,and the regulation radio was 1.5,the training omission rate and low complexity of MaxEnt model were low,and the fitting was the best.The AUC value of the receiver-operating characteristic curve was 0.967,showing that the model prediction results were accurate and high reliability.According to the results of the Jackknife,the precipitation of the warmest season,the precipitation seasonality,the temperature seasonality,the annual mean temperature,and the topsoil base saturation were the dominant environmental factors affecting the distribution of A.pedunculata.The prediction results of the model showed that at present suitable areas of A.pedunculata in China were mainly distributed in the Inner Mongolia Plateau and Loess Plateau.The analysis of historical,current and future adaptation areas showed that A.pedunculata was sensitive to climate change.Under different climate change scenarios in the future,the suitable area of A.pedunculata would shrink and tend to migrate to middle and high latitude,and high altitude areas,especially under high greenhouse gas emission concentration,the migration distance would be longer.[Conclusion]The optimized model can accurately predict the potential geographical distribution area of A.pedunculata.Temperature and precipitation are the most likely environmental factors causing the migration of A.pedunculata distribution areas.In the future,climate warming will cause the migration of the distribution area of A.pedunculata.Under the background of future climate warming,suitable areas of A.pedunculata tend to decrease.The reduction areas are mainly in low latitudes and low altitudes,while newly suitable areas appear in medium and high latitudes,and high altitudes(Hohhot,Ordos,Xilingol,Yan'an).关键词
长柄扁桃/MaxEnt模型/适生区/气候变化/环境因子Key words
Amygdalus pedunculata/MaxEnt model/suitable area/climate change/environmental factors分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
张淑宁,包文泉,陈俊兴,敖敦,红梅,张雅茜,包福海,王淋,乌云塔娜,白玉娥..气候变化背景下我国长柄扁桃潜在适生区预测[J].林业科学,2023,59(12):25-36,12.基金项目
内蒙古自治区科技重大专项(2021ZD0041-002). （2021ZD0041-002）
