南水北调与水利科技（中英文）2023，Vol.21Issue(6)：1223-1234,12.DOI:10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2023.0121
南水北调京津冀豫受水区水资源供需新形势及对策
New situation and countermeasures of water resource supply and demand in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-Henan water receiving area of the South-to-North Water Transfers Project
摘要
Abstract
The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-Henan region is the water-receiving area of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Transfers Project.Under the new situation,the water supply and consumption issues in the four provinces and cities are directly related to the follow-up project demonstration of the Middle Route of South-to North Water Transfers Project,and even related to the construction of the national water network.Therefore,it is necessary to analyze and judge the current and future situation of water supply and consumption in order to further promote the high-quality development of the follow-up project of the South-to-North Water Transfers Projecct. There are many factors affecting water resource supply and demand analysis,including socio-economic development,water use efficiency,and water resource conditions and so on.On the basis of formulating the planning level year,the trend of economic and social development and the future water use efficiency are analyzed and judged,the quota method is used to predict the water demand,the available water supply is analyzed and simulated when each water supply project meets the operational requirements,the supply and demand analysis,the gap between supply and demand and is explored the decision-making strategies are put forward. The analysis shows that in the face of future water demand,the population will shift from overall driving to regional driving,and the economy will shift from high-speed driving to high-efficiency driving.The reverse driving of water use efficiency will further play an important role,while the supporting role of local water resources will weaken,and there is still a significant shortage of water resources.The main supply-demand contradiction will shift to rural agricultural areas.Considering the expansion of water supply scope and the increase in agricultural water supply tasks in the Middle Route Project,the first phase of the Middle Route Project has achieved results,and after the implementation of the Yangtze River and Han River Diversion Project,there will still be a water shortage of about 4.4-4.9 billion m3 in 2035.It is recommended that the follow-up Middle Route Project should expand energy and increase water sources to solve this problem.The problems such as agricultural water shortage,groundwater overexploitation,and urban water shortage will be included in the overall plan of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project,and the advantages of the Middle Route Project will be fully utilized to systematically solve the water security problems in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-Henan region. The water supply and demand situation of the four provinces and cities,as well as the future water supply and demand issues under the new situation is analyzed,and the solutions are put forward to address the water supply shortage,which has certain reference value for demonstrating the scale and promoting the high-quality development of the follow-up South-to-North Water Transfers Project.关键词
南水北调工程/用水态势/用水驱动/供需形势/后续工程Key words
South-to-North Water Transfers Project/water utilization situation/water utilization drivering/supply and demand situation/subsequent engineering分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
张娜,李波,刘子慧,周雨奇,李泽锦..南水北调京津冀豫受水区水资源供需新形势及对策[J].南水北调与水利科技（中英文）,2023,21(6):1223-1234,12.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3200303) （2021YFC3200303）
长江勘测规划设计研究有限责任公司自主创新项目(CX2020Z02) （CX2020Z02）
