情报杂志2024，Vol.43Issue(1)：142-151,126,11.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-1965.2024.01.020
面向复杂舆论场景的信息内容风险诊断模型构建与仿真研究
Diagnostic Model Construction and Simulation Study of Information Content Risks in Complex Public Opinion Scenarios
摘要
Abstract
[Research purpose]The objective of this study is to extract information content risk points in complex public opinion scenari-os,construct a risk diagnostic model,and provide method references and tool guidance for practical work.[Research method]The statis-tical data obtained by using SCL,JHA,SWOT and a risk expert survey listing method were analyzed to identify five information content risk points in complex public opinion scenarios.After determining the framework of risk diagnostic indicators by the Delphi Method,the AHP-DEMATEL method was applied to weight the centralities Miand initial weights W1iand then standardize them,forming a diagnostic equation.Then,in conjunction with risk classification criteria,the risk diagnostic I-E-S model was constructed.Finally,the model's per-formance was tested through case studies.[Research conclusion]The results indicate that risk source and risk disposal performance have the greatest impact on the diagnostic indicator,followed by audience emotional response and behavioral response.The impact of dissemi-nation power is the smallest.Among the last 20 actionable indicators,the proportion of erroneous content,the number of secondary illegal and non-compliant users,the volume of significant negative public opinion,and the quantity of offline deviant behaviors have significant effects.Through multiple empirical tests,it was found that the risk diagnostic results of the I-E-S model align with users'risk perception with a compatibility rate exceeding 82.2%.The practicability and accuracy of this model can initially meet the needs of risk control.关键词
舆论/复杂舆论场景/信息内容风险/风险诊断/诊断模型/诊断指标Key words
public opinion/complex public opinion scenarios/information content risk/risk diagnosis/diagnostic model/diagnostic indi-cators分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
寇杰,李明德,乔亨..面向复杂舆论场景的信息内容风险诊断模型构建与仿真研究[J].情报杂志,2024,43(1):142-151,126,11.基金项目
国家社会科学基金项目"媒介赋权视域下健康观建构和健康信息服务创新研究"(编号:20XXW008) （编号:20XXW008）
传播内容认知国家重点实验室开放基金资助项目"复杂舆论场景中信息内容传播风控评估体系构建与应用"(编号:20K02) （编号:20K02）
陕西省社会科学基金年度项目"大数据背景下陕西网络舆情态势研判与风险防控策略研究"(编号:2022M002) （编号:2022M002）
陕西省社会科学基金项目舆情专项委托项目"重大事件中网络舆情、民意与执政理念协同发展研究"(编号:2021ZXWT02) （编号:2021ZXWT02）
2023年陕西省软科学研究计划一般项目"媒体为陕西创新驱动高质量发展营造良好舆论氛围研究"(编号:2023-CX-RKX-047)研究成果. （编号:2023-CX-RKX-047）
