气象学报2023，Vol.81Issue(6)：879-896,18.DOI:10.11676/qxxb2023.20220163
涡旋结构和环境场对台风"黑格比"(2020)强度变化的影响
Impacts of vortex structure and environment on the intensity of typhoon Hagupit(2020)
摘要
Abstract
To improve understanding of essential aspects that influence forecasting of tropical cyclones,through an ensemble simulation of typhoon Hagupit(2020),this study investigates the impact of the initial vortex and environmental factors on the peak intensity of Hagupit.It is found that there is a stronger correlation between the peak intensity and the maximum azimuthal mean 10 m tangential wind speed than the peak intensity and the maximum 10 m wind speed.This is ascribed to the prominent asymmetry of Hagupit at the early developing stage.Due to the asymmetry,the maximum 10 m wind speed cannot represent the entire wind speed of the vortex.In contrast,the maximum azimuthal mean 10 m tangential wind speed reflects the storm entire wind speed properly and thus is a better predictor for the peak intensity.A stronger correlation exists between the outer-core size and the peak intensity than the inner-core size and the peak intensity.Comparing to the size of the outer-core and the inner-core,the fullness of the typhoon has the strongest and significant correlation with peak intensity,the larger the fullness,the stronger peak intensity.The environmental flow is also found to affect the peak intensity of Hagupit substantially.In the ensemble members with stronger typhoon Sinlaku(2020)and subtropical high respectively to the west and east of Hagupit,the storm usually moves northwards faster under the effect of the steering flow with larger northward component.As a result,the intensification of Hagupit is inhibited by the earlier intrusion of dry air from the north and larger vertical wind shear.These findings mean that for typhoons such as Hagupit,a precise description of the initial vortex structure,nearby typhoon,and subtropical high are crucial for improving the prediction of the maximum intensity.关键词
台风/最大强度/最大风速/集合模拟/环境气流Key words
Typhoon/Peak intensity/Maximum wind speed/Ensemble simulation/Environmental flow分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
马艺铭,方娟,王晨迪..涡旋结构和环境场对台风"黑格比"(2020)强度变化的影响[J].气象学报,2023,81(6):879-896,18.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(42175004、41875067). （42175004、41875067）
