热带气象学报2023，Vol.39Issue(5)：689-696,8.DOI:10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2023.060
广州城市暴雨内涝模型模拟效果评估
EVALUATION OF SIMULATION EFFECT OF URBAN RAINSTORM WATERLOGGING MODEL IN GUANGZHOU
摘要
Abstract
In the present study,a Guangzhou urban rainstorm waterlogging model which is developed using the hydrodynamic method,combined with refined precipitation forecast data,is used to simulate the ponding depth and risk level of waterlogging points in Guangzhou.The results demonstrate that the model has a hit rate of 65%for the waterlogging risk level of the waterlogging points in the past two years,while the highest hit rate is 72.8%for the precipitation processes with accumulated precipitation of 50～100 mm.The simulated ponding depth for the precipitation event on May 22 is relatively shallower compared with the real situation,and the error is mainly found in the simulation for the ponding depth within 30 cm,accounting for about 64%.Most of the simulated ponding depth is shallower and these ponding points are mainly located in the north-central part of Guangzhou.The model has good simulation ability for ponding with depth below 1 m,while the simulation ability for deep ponding around 2 m is still limited.Moreover,the waterlogging conditions are different in the central urban area under different return periods.Under the 1-hour rain condition,the ponding depth is generally less than 20 cm,and some range within 20～59 cm;under the 3-hour rain condition,the ponding depth is generally between 20～59 cm,with some ranging between 0～20 cm and 60～119 cm.Overall,the simulation results roughly match the actual waterlogging situation,and the model accuracy can meet general operational needs.关键词
广州/暴雨内涝模型/内涝点/积水深度/风险等级Key words
Guangzhou/rainstorm waterlogging model/waterlogging point/ponding depth/risk level分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
李海燕,吴晓绚,王婷,潘蔚娟,肖婷,叶希莹..广州城市暴雨内涝模型模拟效果评估[J].热带气象学报,2023,39(5):689-696,8.基金项目
广州市气象学会科研项目(M202110)资助 （M202110）
